2014 ACM Awards Nominees, Preview & Predictions

acm-awards-logoSo we haven’t even had time since the 56th Grammy Awards to sort out if Madonna had the authority to preside over a mass wedding, or if Pharrell’s hat was indeed copyright infringement against the Arby’s logo, and here only a few days later we’re asked to crunch a fresh batch of data dealing with the nominees for the 2014 ACM Awards on April 6th. There really should be some sort of mandate that the bad taste in your mouth and the horror of one awards show should have long subsided before you have to interface in any way with the next one, but apparently this would have been the case if The Grammys hadn’t been moved up this year because of the Winter Olympics.

Already the ACM nominees have many rolling their eyes and crying foul for various reasons. But folks, don’t ingratiate the Academy of Country Music beyond its value by acting like these awards matter to a greater degree than they actually do. Sure, the presence of the CMT Awards, and now FOX’s ACA Awards have somewhat risen the ACM’s out of the country music award show basement, but they will always be the baby brother of the CMA’s, and will be beset by ridiculous backroom label politics resulting in the anomalies to downright ridiculous notions that some of this year’s nominees represent. Nonetheless, a nomination and win will mean more attention and revenue for a respective label and artist, so it is not fair to discount the matter completely.

Tim McGraw and Miranda Lambert landed the most nominations with 7, and this is where the sideways glances begin. Miranda, though undoubtedly enjoying great success, hasn’t even release an album in over two years. Tim, undoubtedly doing everything he can aside from posing nude or releasing a sex tape to get the public’s attention after years of being saddled by Curb Records, certainly deserves some attention, but like Miranda, is likely being padded behind-the-scenes by a powerful label.

Once again George Strait is up for Entertainer of the Year, gut-checking the ACM constituency into potentially registering a sympathy vote and certainly making this category a subject of great intrigue instead of a forgone conclusion. And the laugh out loud moment is the nomination of Sheryl Crow for Female Vocalist of the Year—the same 5th slot the ACM’s have been stretching to fill for a few years now, with Kelly Clarkson, and Kacey Musgraves before she had even released an album being the other recent anomalies.

Things can change, news can break, and artists can have big months between here and now, but here are some early picks and observations.

Entertainer of the Year

Two horse race between last year’s winner Luke Bryan that had yet another very commercially-successful year, and the sympathy vote for King George. Miranda’s inclusion here is somewhat interesting, and there may be a sentiment out there that at some point Miranda deserves an Entertainer of the Year from somewhere, but it’s hard to see that happening this year. Taylor Swift has no chance, and may not even attend the awards.

  • Luke Bryan – Other Potential Winner
  • Blake Shelton
  • George Strait – Winner
  • Taylor Swift
  • Miranda Lambert

 

Male Vocalist of the Year

This comes down to the two hosts of the ACM Awards, Luke Bryan and Blake Shelton. Interesting to see Curb Records really pushing Lee Brice in this year’s cycle, but he doesn’t have the cred yet for this distinction. Keith Urban’s influence died off years ago, and Average Joe’s cash cow Jason Aldean’s Night Train just didn’t have the kind of wide impact My Kinda Party did.

  • Jason Aldean
  • Lee Brice
  • Luke Bryan – Winner
  • Blake Shelton – Other Potential Winner
  • Keith Urban

 

Female Vocalist of the Year

This is a hard one. Of course Sheryl Crow has no chance, and Taylor likely doesn’t either. Carrie seems like a long shot, and always seems to be underdogged by the ACM’s. Kacey Musgraves has received love from the ACM’s early and often, and if she can make a splash between here and now on the radio, she might have an outside chance. But it’s all setting up to be Miranda’s night.

  • Sheryl Crow
  • Miranda Lambert – Winner
  • Kacey Musgraves
  • Taylor Swift
  • Carrie Underwood

 

Single Record of the Year

Duh.

  • Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” – Winner
  • Lee Brice – “I Drive Your Truck”
  • Miranda Lambert – “Mama’s Broken Heart”
  • Darius Rucker – “Wagon Wheel”

 

Album of the Year

Man. This is a completely wide open field, and I have no confidence picking any one of these over the others. Obviously Kacey Musgraves would be the critical favorite. Blake Shelton also has to be considered a favorite since he won the CMA in the same category. It might be a little early for Florida Georgia Line to win an award like this, but it’s hard to argue with that album’s performance. And the ACM’s seem to love Luke, so he can’t be ruled out. Tim McGraw is about the only long shot.

  • “Based On A True Story”¦” Blake Shelton
  • “Crash My Party” Luke Bryan
  • “Here’s To The Good Times” Florida Georgia Line
  • “Same Trailer Different Park” Kacey Musgraves
  • “Two Lanes Of Freedom” Tim McGraw

 

Song of the Year

We’ve seen “Mama’s Broken Heart” listed in the category for many of the year’s awards, but does it really have the kind of depth of a typical Song of the Year? “Wagon Wheel” doesn’t really either, but can’t be ruled out. Interesting to see Gary Allan get a mention here.

  • “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” Gary Allan Songwriters: Gary Allan, Hillary Lindsey, Matthew Warren
  • “I Drive Your Truck” Lee Brice    Songwriters: Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Jimmy Yeary – Winner
  • “Mama’s Broken Heart” Miranda Lambert Songwriters: Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves
  • “Mine Would Be You” Blake Shelton Songwriters: Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Deric Ruttan
  • “Wagon Wheel” Darius Rucker Featuring Lady Antebellum Songwriters: Bob Dylan, Ketch Secor – Other Potential Winner

 

Vocal Event of the Year

Were the contributions of Lady Antebellum to “Wagon Wheel” and The Pistol Annies to “Boys ‘Round Here” significant enough to consider them true vocal events? “Cruise” is the obvious commercial winner, but voters may shy away from the cross-genre collaboration.

  • “Boys ‘Round Here” Blake Shelton Featuring The Pistol Annies
  • “Cruise” (Remix) Florida Georgia Line Featuring Nelly
  • “Highway Don’t Care: Tim McGraw Featuring Taylor Swift & Keith Urban – Winner
  • “Wagon Wheel” Darius Rucker Featuring Lady Antebellum
  • “We Were Us” Keith Urban And Miranda Lambert

 

Vocal Duo of the Year

I write about country music for a living, and this is the very first time I have ever heard of “Dan + Shay”. Previewing their music, hopefully I never have to hear from them again. Joey + Rory would have been the better pick.

  • Big & Rich
  • Dan + Shay
  • Florida Georgia Line – Winner
  • Love and Theft
  • Thompson Square

 

Songwriter of the Year

Shane McAnally is who deserves it. Rhett Atkins would be the commercial pick. Luke Laird also likely has an outside chance.

  • Rhett Akins – Other Potential Winner
  • Rodney Clawson
  • Ashley Gorley
  • Luke Laird
  • Shane McAnally – Winner

 

Vocal Group of the Year

  • Eli Young Band
  • Lady Antebellum
  • Little Big Town
  • The Band Perry
  • Zac Brown Band

 

Video of the Year

  • “Better Dig Two” The Band Perry Producer
  • “Blowin’ Smoke” Kacey Musgraves Producer
  • “Highway Don’t Care” Tim McGraw Featuring Taylor Swift & Keith Urban
  • “I Drive Your Truck” Lee Brice Producer: Karen Martin Director: Eric Welch
  • “Mama’s Broken Heart” Miranda Lambert
  • “Two Black Cadillacs” Carrie Underwood