Coronavirus Hysteria Officially Infects SXSW & Music Industry
Without a single case of the Coronavirus either confirmed or even suspected at the moment in Austin, TX or the greater Travis county area, the mayor of Austin, Steve Adler, has declared a “local disaster,” mandating that the music portion of SXSW set to transpire in Austin the 3rd week of March will no longer happen, against the wishes of SXSW itself, and despite officials at Austin Public Health determining just 48 hours before that cancelling SXSW would in no way make the city safer.
In the wake of this cancellation and other developments tied to the fears of Coronoavirus, we should all feel embarrassed and demoralized at the succumbing to the outright hysteria this disease has caused throughout culture. Coronavirus was the first real test of how the world would react to the concerns of a potential pandemic since the wide permeation of social media, the polarization of the population due to political rancor, and the voracious appetite for clicks and attention by traditional media amid a dying industry and an outmoded business model. We have colossally failed that test. Hysteria has prevailed, and people’s retirement savings, people’s livelihoods, and the very pursuit of happiness at the heart of every Democracy and assemblage of free peoples has been significantly and adversely affected by this madness.
Now the hyper concern and panic over the Coronavirus has landed at the doorstep of music, and will affect the industry in such a corrosive way, its reverberations could be felt for years to come, especially by the precedent set by canceling what is the largest independent music gathering in the world, pressuring, if not ensuring other musical events throughout 2020 and beyond cancel their plans in a domino affect, putting a significant burden on the livelihoods of musical performers, their representatives in the industry, the promoters of live events themselves, underwriters in the insurance industry for these events who are sure to receive record claims, and the local economies and businesses that benefit from musical gatherings including contractors, hotels, and restaurateurs that will now be left holding the bag. From major festivals and headliner tours to local club shows, Coronavirus is now a part of the equation of whether these events should be allowed to move forward.
This is not in any way to say there isn’t cause for concern about the Coronavirus, or cause for concern about the Coronavirus somehow affecting SXSW festivities, or other live music events. With the amount of individuals congregating within the city and traveling from distant places to attend SXSW festivities, of course there should be worry about the public health implications. Precautions should be taken, and protocols mandated. Anyone showing symptoms or those who’ve been in contact with someone with the Coronavirus should not go to any live musical event. And of course, anyone who fears for their health and safety due to the Coronavirus has every right not to attend live musical performances, and avoid congregations of people.
But context is needed. As of Friday (3-6) evening, the amount of confirmed Coronavirus cases in the United States is 267, or 0.00008% of the population. 15 people have died. For context, 4,800 people have died from the flu in the United States in 2020, and there has been 87,000 hospitalizations. Also, only 3.4 percent of the people who contract the Conronavirus die from the disease, which is a higher frequency than flu sufferers (varies upon strain and year), but is still a very low percentage.
To cancel an entire function, especially one as expansive and omnivorous as SXSW—which is actually a collection of hundreds of individual events held in different locations throughout the region—is devastating on an unprecedented scale, and the essence of an alarmist overreaction. And doing so under the pretense of a “local disaster” through an act of government when no actual “disaster” exists is a very scary precedent that could be called upon in the future to stifle legal rights to assembly. With still ample time before the music portion of SXSW, and plenty of tools at the dispose of the event including disallowing individuals from affected regions or showing symptoms from attending, this is an overreaction too early in the process. If cases began to appear in Austin, or a dramatic spike in the spread of the disease occurred, there would still be time to cancel the event in the future.
Another issue is that many, if not most of the functions that transpire around the 34-year-old event are unofficial, meaning they don’t fall under the umbrella or jurisdiction of the SXSW organization. Can these events move forward, or will the city shut them down too? Right now hundreds of event organizers, including for massive functions that attract thousands of people like Willie Nelson’s annual Luck Reunion held on the Thursday of SXSW at a location dozens of miles outside of the city are having to asses how to handle their events, with little or no guidance or precedence to go off of.
Possibly the worst to be affected is the performers themselves who are asking similar questions about their obligations to non-official SXSW events during the time period, wondering if they should cancel travel plans, including artist who are dependent on these performance as income, and have routed entire spring touring plans around their SXSW attendance.
Misconceptions abound about SXSW for people who have never attended. SXSW has received criticism from many over the last decade, (including from Saving Country Music) for being too bloated, too unorganized, full of safety concerns that were exacerbated with the killing of 4 people and the injuring of 26 in an auto rampage in 2014, and the general congestion the event brings to Austin annually, though many of these concerns have been addressed and mitigated in the last few years. Make no mistake, some are celebrating the cancellation of the event—Cronovirus-related or otherwise—due to the inconvenience to the city.
But unquestionably, even with its annual complications, SXSW is where independent music artists are discovered, where they find the right managers, labels, booking agents, and publicists to help further their career, and managers, labels, booking agents, and publicists find future starts for that roster. It’s where media outlets like Saving Country Music discover and support burgeoning talent. All those important moments, those critical connections, the face to face interaction in an increasingly digital world will not happen this year, and this will specifically impact the independent side of music more adversely where that support and those interactions are often essential.
Now, promoters from across the world will be more likely to cancel their events. Music tours will be adversely affected, not just from cancellations, but from fear in the public to attend. The litigious nature of today’s society already had HR departments of major corporate sponsors and promoters pulling out of SXSW before the cancellation, and second-guessing current and future plans.
All of this is for a virus that when zooming out and assessing the situation with a cool mind is a popcorn fart blown up into an atomic bomb by opportunistic entities in the media an elsewhere. Unfortunately that atomic bomb just got dropped right in the heart of the Live Music Capital of the World, which is already reeling from rapid contraction and financial strain within its music community. The economic earnings for the 2020 edition of SXSW where over 400,000 people were expected to attend was expected to be $355 million. Many of the music venues throughout the city have their greatest days during SXSW. It is the Black Friday for Austin music, multiple days in a row. Now, they have an entire week or more blocked off for official SXSW showcases, with no bands and no events to host. The Austin music scene may never recover from that loss.
The “disaster” is not the specter of Coronavious possibly affecting someone who may attend SXSW. It’s canceling the event due to the embarrassing hysteria we have allowed to fester over this concerning, but limited disease that is likely to subside with the onset of spring, right when the music portion of SXSW is scheduled to commence. Meanwhile domino-like implications throughout the music industry will begin to fall for the days and weeks ahead, and affect music like we’ve never seen before.
The City of Austin didn’t just suffer a disaster. They just created one.
Kevin
March 6, 2020 @ 7:16 pm
Oh man. Now you’ve done it. Cue outrage in 3…2…1
Jim L.
March 6, 2020 @ 7:51 pm
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!!!!
Paul
March 6, 2020 @ 7:55 pm
“Only” 3.4% fatality rate?
I hate to be the outrage guy cause that’s not me but epidemics can spread fast. Look at Iran and Italy. I think you’re downplaying this too much. Give it another two weeks and see what the landscape looks like then.
Trigger
March 6, 2020 @ 8:02 pm
” Give it another two weeks and see what the landscape looks like then.”
That’s my exact point. Why are we cancelling this thing two weeks out and declaring a “local disaster” when nothing has happened?
The point of citing the mortality rate was to point out that getting the virus is not a death sentence. The mortality rate for Ebola for example is 50%. There was ample concern for that outbreak in 2014, but we weren’t canceling festivals and seeing the stock market lose 1/4 of its value.
SG
March 6, 2020 @ 9:02 pm
The death rate for people without pre-existing conditions is less than 1%. And it’s below half a percent for people under 50.
Clearly people with health conditions and people over a certain age should be isolated as much as possible. Everyone else should calm the fuck down.
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 9:17 pm
When you talk about “death rate” you have to take into account the denominator, which in this case is essentially the whole population of the U.S. since nobody has any immunity to this novel virus…so even if it’s 1% (and some study’s are more like 3.5% overall) that means of the roughly 300,000,000 population of the U.S ONLY 3 million would die…of course it would likely be more because our ICUs cant even BEGIN to care for a fraction of that many patients in a short time period.
Flying J
March 7, 2020 @ 5:55 am
That’s assuming a 100% infection rate. Through the end of February China had documented (or admitted to) 80,000 cases out of a dense population of 1.4 billion, or .005% infection rate.
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 6:50 am
Flying J: China got some kind of handle on this because they forced many, many millions of people into quarantine. The U.S. not only cannot do this, they are unwilling to so this is a totally different circumstance. If we keep ignoring the likely repercussions of this novel virus it will be catastrophic. Anything we can do to slow disease spread we MUST do in order to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system. Spreading severe cases out over time is what cancelling public gatherings is about.
Paul
March 6, 2020 @ 9:03 pm
True that Ebola was way more fatal but it was also much less easily transmissible. This is very contagious. Ebola was basically in three countries, this is already way more widespread. The US has doubled the cases in like two days – although yes it’s a tiny percentage of the population. Italy’s infected pop kept doubling very quickly and they are a similarl first world country.
And I’m sure folks cancelling large events would prefer to wait but that could end up costing a lot more money. They might look dumb if it ends up getting squashed but it’s probably a good educated guess that cancelling it is the best bet. No crystal balls though so who knows.
Ignazio
March 7, 2020 @ 4:32 am
I am from Italy. You know what’s funny? We didn’t even “gave it another two weeks and see what the landscape looks like then”. The government found 1 case in Lombardy and started checking his contacts for free. Then they found out how many of this guy’s contact had been infected and had been spreading the virus through people. Two weeks later we have 4636 cases because the government is checking people FOR FREE. This is the difference.
I do not want to criticize America’s Health Care System, but it’s OBVIOUS that if a check costs 3200 USD for American people, not everyone can afford them. Italy has checked 70.000 people in the last few weeks. How many people did America check? I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but the virus is running unchecked all over the US.
Also, death rate is “only 3.4%”? Do you know that 10% to 15% of people need intensive care to treat COVID-19 infections? If the virus spreads as easily as it’s spreading over here, with closed schools and canceled concerts, there will be too many people requiring intensive care treatments for the whole system to afford them. Hospitals in Northern Italy are full, and some doctors are being infected. There will be too many people to cure and not enough people to provide health care.
I follow this website a lot Trigger, I agree with you most times and I think you’re a great music critic. But this topic is delicate, and if you have no knowledge of it you should not talk about it. Bad information will only help this epidemy to grow. You should thank people for canceling concert in the US as a prevention. This is not something that should be overlooked.
Daniele
March 7, 2020 @ 11:14 am
Ciao ignazio,
i’m from Roma, Italy too.
I feel very bad for all the cancellations and stuff but this is real.
Hard to take any decision though
Paddy
March 7, 2020 @ 1:22 pm
Ignacio. Here in U.K. it is the same. As of 5pm today 20640 people had been checked. Just over 200 were found to be positive and 2 have died. An awful lot more will be infected but at least all tests are FREE, and so will care at the hands of theNational Health Service, or so we are told. One more interesting fact. Apparently nobody under the age of 9 has died
Leonardo Saponara
March 11, 2020 @ 2:40 pm
I’m in Rome and I confirm this 100%. It is not a matter of mortality (although old people’s life has value too), it is a matter of not overloading the capacity of the intensive care units and of the various healtcare facilities. You are lucky that the situation in America isn’t as bad as here in Europe, but it is building it to it and with the inferior American healthcare system there will surely be a disaster if serious precautions are not taken. Don’t underestimate it, and keep safe.
Greetings from a nation in lockdown.
Blockman
March 7, 2020 @ 12:24 pm
C’mon, Trig. With all due respect you’re a music journalist. You don’t need to play this game.
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 1:59 pm
What game am I playing here? Honest question.
And I bristle at this idea that I can’t broach this subject because I’m a music journalist. Being a journalist gives me direct insight into how the media games the American mind for attention, while being a music journalist and Austinite affords me the understanding of just how this will affect the music community.
Blockman
March 7, 2020 @ 2:43 pm
Hey Trig – I totally agree that your insight into how this whole situation is impacting the independent music scene at large is super valuable and relevant . That would make a super interesting and worthwhile article . It is an important perspective for sure and you being local to this sxsw situation makes it even more insightful and relevant. I just thought it could’ve been done without throwing out statistics and theories regarding how serious the Coronavirus is and how it should be handled etc at large . It kind of detracts from your important perspective as a music journalist during this situation.
I’m not trying to belittle your work as a music journalist or minimize it’s importance by any means . What I’ve seen you do over the years is remarkable and extremely valuable to myself and so many others. If anything I’d trust your expertise on how this impacts the independent music scene more than anyone else’s as I know you are extremely passionate and informed in that area. But the other things I mentioned isn’t your expertise and doesn’t really help an already muddy situation that’s full of misinformation. Your point could’ve been made without that extra stuff.
Again, how this is impacting independent music I think you’re more qualified than anyone to speak on this. But as far as the Coronavirus as a whole – not so much. I don’t think many are really qualified to assess the risk and severity of it. And a big part of the problem – as you pretty much pointed out – is the media blowing it up and running with it in various directions when they most likely lack the expertise to make such judgements or assessments. As your line of work makes you part of the media that’s what I meant by you don’t need to play this game.
It is too early to tell just how serious this Coronavirus situation will be in the USA. Mass hysteria is not going to help anything, I totally agree there , but going to the other extreme and downplaying it as if it’s not any worse than the common flu for example doesn’t help either. We simply don’t know and shrugging it off as it’s no big deal is kinda how it got to the point it is at now in other countries. And I’m saying this as someone currently living somewhere that shares a border with where this all started and has been impacted negatively financially due to it and likely will continue to be. That’s all I meant by my comments to you here. Hope this makes sense. As you know I can tend to ramble. Again I got nothing but respect for you and your work. Cheers.
The Original WTF Guy
March 9, 2020 @ 3:33 am
I am totally with Blockman in that you do a *great* job doing what you do, but you have begun to bleed over more and more into things that are less directly related to music and start getting into other things. The point is that you are not in any way qualified to discuss this beyond how it might impact indepedent country music.
When people who don’t know what they are talking about start saying things like ““Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that…” it scares the shit out of me, particularly if that person is in a position where he/she could make a difference in the response to this.
So when a music journalist writes something like this, with the tone this article takes, it scares the shit out of me. No disrespect, you are not that smart. Full disclosure – neither am I and I have a PhD. Let’s leave the analysis of this issue to those who *do* understand it and not write things that imply this is all some grand conspiracy of some sort.
Look, losing an event that brings an estimated $350 million into the economy is a huge deal. But do you think this was a decision that was made easily? This is serious stuff, not only the economic side but more importantly the health side. Maybe 5 years from now when temperatures have not risen, sea levels are the same as they are now, and coronavirus is being used in an ad for crappy beer we can all laugh at it and focus on how Sturgill Simpson’s new disco album is a repudiation of all that he could have been as the savior of country music. But until that time doesn’t it make sense to take measures to ensure we will have the best chance possible to bitch at Sturgill?
Cole
March 22, 2020 @ 3:08 am
You are a music journalist, not an epidemiologist, but you tried to play one. Hopefully what you see now keeps you in your lane going forward. I mean damn, just read the article again, and think to yourself, why did I ever think I had the information to make such arrogant assertions. I was embarrassed for you as I read it.
Paddy
March 7, 2020 @ 1:11 pm
Some good news. Within the last few weeks the WHO declared the last Ebola case had left hospital.
Paddy
March 17, 2020 @ 7:03 am
Would you now acknowledge that your initial remarks were totally out of order. The great pity is that more mayors, governors etc in USA did not take similar actions. Now we suffer. As President Trump has stated “this thing will go away”. I bet he regrets that remark. Yes it will go away. But how many will die. Here in U.K. respected health professionals and scientists are predicting a death total in excess of 250000 if our government does not change its direction. We shall all suffer. Financially and health wise. The music business will be one of the worst to suffer. Entertainment will be greatly reduced. When the scientists come up with a vaccine, and they will, the world will be a different place. And after the vaccine is discovered we will be years away from where we were two months ago. At least the mayor of Austin tried.
Wood Yi
April 1, 2020 @ 2:52 pm
Bet you feel like a certified moron today for writing Coronavirus Hysteria Officially Infects SXSW & Music Industry.
Drew
March 6, 2020 @ 7:57 pm
Well said. This is all going to be nothing in about a month and a lot of people are going to be looking like fools. What a shame.
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 8:35 pm
You are incorrect.
sbach66
March 6, 2020 @ 8:47 pm
Please expound on your answer. Why is Drew “incorrect?”
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 9:10 pm
The article I referenced is a good start in explaining. We are in the very very early stages of testing, so “known cases” will pop up very quickly in the next couple of weeks as people who have the virus are actually tested and confirmed as “positive”. In addition the doubling rate is roughly 6 days due to the relatively high “contagiousness’ of this virus. Many out there may have it but in a mild form which looks like the common cold or fly, but are able to transmit it to others who are near them. For most of us it’s not that big a deal, but if you are elderly, have other chronic illnesses (especially respiratory illnesses) or are just plain unlucky then you have a reasonable chance of either being hospitalized for a while or flat out dying. The last figure I saw said that if you are sick enough to be hospitalized in the ICU, you had a 50% chance of surviving. If large numbers of people get the virus in a short time period, the sickest of them will arrive at hospitals at roughly the same times, overwhelming the system…that’s one of the major things we are trying to avoid by NOT having large numbers of people congregating in a relatively small space.
Di Harris
March 7, 2020 @ 9:30 am
RGW,
Curios … What type of “Dr.” are you?
M.D., DO, Ph.D., what?
Might want to look up Elizabeth Holmes, Theranos, the FDA, and Bill and Hillary Clinton, Holmes parents, etc. Just for starters.
Gosh di, do you mean the FDA actually approved this dangerous venture?
That the FDA could actually be swayed by the various lobbyists, on the Hill?
*Shudder*
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 9:40 am
I’m an M.D. Di…I actually treat sick patients. Believe whatever you want, and best of luck to you.
paddy
March 8, 2020 @ 4:22 am
You better believe USA is in early stages. Italy has just quarantined the whole of Northern Italy. 25 per cent of total population. No sports events, no concerts, museums closed and NO WEDDINGS. The Pope has cancelled all public appearances. Here in Ireland (Northern Ireland to be precise) we have got off very lucky. So far. But we are waiting. So Govts., local Govt, all over the world cannot be lying. Good luck. Di should get a job at Disney. Cinderella would be good fit.
sbach66
March 6, 2020 @ 8:49 pm
I see that you did below. Thank you.
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 8:45 pm
Read this report from someone living in South Korea, which BTW has a very good healthcare system, and has handled the outbreak much better than the U.S. at this point:
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/06/im-an-expat-in-seoul-living-amid-the-coronavirus-outbreak-i-feel-like-im-living-in-the-end-times/?fbclid=IwAR2TkUHbifPmJXK9JK-rFvuiK–qeVPFR4HY5XkYFgHsBDCRNN7gl_Cpdko/
Don’t think for a minute this can’t happen here
Jacob W.
March 6, 2020 @ 9:00 pm
That is hysteria too. Only 160 cases is not proportional to a pandemic. Overreacting does not make something more dangerous than it inherently is.
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 9:18 pm
Get back to us in about 3 weeks and see if you still feel the same.
Di Harris
March 7, 2020 @ 9:42 am
Precious?
Disney World is still open.
Receiving tens of thousands of guests daily.
But, but! They HAVE added more hand sanitizing stations. Whew! Thank goodness!
Irony, much?
Paddy
March 18, 2020 @ 7:27 am
Hey RGW. Nobody would appear to want to get back to you. Your estimate of 3 weeks was optimistic. Here in Ireland it is getting very scary. And our political leaders were acting from beginning. They took a lot of criticism from those idiots like Di, Drew and Trigger. When the politicos mess up They deserve all they get. In this case the mayor was obviously acting on the information he was given. Not the information that our respected journalist had. As I said in another post he should stick to music. He is very good at that
RGW
March 18, 2020 @ 7:50 am
Yes, it’s going along just as I expected, and we haven’t even really gotten to the bad parts yet. We already have several people around us in quarantine and work has been affected, we’ve cancelled all elective surgery in order to try and prepare for what’s ahead. Good luck to you over there, hopefully it’ll pass through without TOO much mortality and without anywhere in Ireland having a particularly bad cluster as northern Italy did.
Di Harris
March 7, 2020 @ 9:46 am
Uh-huh, an M.D.
What is your specialty?
In what city and state, do you practice?
Conrad Fisher
March 7, 2020 @ 10:02 am
No way I’d answer any one of those questions on an online forum like this. I guess he could be pulling a stunt like ole Barney Fife, M.D. Mayberry Deputy. 😀
Di Harris
March 7, 2020 @ 5:02 pm
I highly doubt RGW is the medical professional he/she, states they are.
BTW, does anyone know if Disney World, Orlando, is still open?
On average they run ~ 50K,
FIFTY THOUSAND PEOPLE, through the gates, DAILY.
DAILY.
AS IN, EVERYDAY.
FROM ALL CORNERS OF THE GLOBE.
Would someone like to address that?
And yes, happy to tie it into the music scene …
Going to give this some time, you know, for people to think about …
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 10:08 am
I’m a cardiac anesthesiologist Di, not too far from Austin. And you, Di??
paddy
March 8, 2020 @ 4:08 am
No. I did not. Probably away looking up some dictionary for some mean looking resume. And then another to see what it means.
Paddy
March 7, 2020 @ 1:36 pm
Hey Di. You have lost. RGW rules.
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 7:30 pm
Thanks Paddy, I didn’t catch Di’s credentials…did you? 🙂
The Original WTF Guy
March 9, 2020 @ 3:38 am
Di Harris, are you intentionally trying to look stupid or is that just happening?
As to Disney, what is your point? Are you suggesting we should make medical policy based on what Disney does?
m
March 9, 2020 @ 4:32 pm
of course disney is going to stay open until theyre forced to shut… 50,000 people is a lot fkn money
Paddy
March 8, 2020 @ 7:24 am
Tell that to the people of Italy.
Paddy
March 17, 2020 @ 7:08 am
Well Drew. How silly do you feel now?
Rooster Cruiser
March 18, 2020 @ 11:35 am
How we feeling about it now, captain?
Mongo
March 6, 2020 @ 8:01 pm
From Ohio here, they just basically cancelled the Arnold classic in Columbus this weekend an event that brings in over 50 mil in revenue. It will be interesting to see how this effects the upcoming March madness games and sports in general. There are reports out that an XFL concession worker is confirmed with COVID-19. This could blow massively out of proportion. Luckily for myself I work for a company that makes antibacterial wipes and there just isn’t enough hours in a day for us right now.
Jacob W.
March 6, 2020 @ 8:31 pm
Nah, you’re right bro. But better safe than sorry. You don’t want to be the guy feeling responsible for even one death. It’s obviously hysteria, but it isn’t groundless. Some people will get sick knowing full well about this and just roam around spreading it because they are oblivious.
Oh yeah, check out the price gouging going on for Lysol and hand sanitizer. Internet killed humanity.
Jon
March 6, 2020 @ 8:53 pm
Internet didn’t kill humanity. It just illuminated all aspects of it.
Jacob W.
March 7, 2020 @ 6:54 am
Yeah, like kinda. But more like magnified minute aspects to make people believe these things are prevalent. Kinda like overt racism hardly exists in America, closet racism sure, but almost nobody is walking around being a racist prick all day. Media magnified the few cases out of literally billions and billions of social interactions. Now something that was seemingly nearly eliminated in the early 2000s seems like it’s pervading all of society. It’s not. But the attack culture is only working to make it worse. No one wants to be accused of being racist simply for existing.
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 8:33 pm
While I understand the pain this will cause to musicians, the economy and ancillary beneficiaries of SXSW, as a physician I believe this is the prudent thing to do. I have closely followed the news about this novel virus and as suggested above, I think if you look back in a few weeks it will be very clear this was the only reasonable option. Do you think ComicCon in Seattle should have been postponed, or was it OK to have a large number of visitors congregate there for that event?
Much of the public perception of “risk” has been delivered by the media and NOT by unbiased medical professionals, and agendas and bias have influenced their message. Time will tell, but to err on the side of caution is the wisest option at this time. Music festivals can be rescheduled, human lives cannot.
SG
March 6, 2020 @ 8:56 pm
There is some amount of risk in living life. Risk of dying in a car accident on the way there, or risk of catching the flu in any given year. Why don’t we shut the entire highway system down when 1.25 million people die in car crashes every year? While we are at it….how many musicians have died in transportation accidents getting to concerts?
Seems to me we should be working overtime to protect the elderly, and encouraging people under a certain age to continue on with their lives. The death rate for people below 50 is less than 1%.
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 9:37 pm
Take a look at this estimate, just concerning the U.S.
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095185785720833
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 9:42 pm
This is a more useful link to the above..
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
SG
March 6, 2020 @ 10:32 pm
That’s pretty well done, and helps change my mind to a degree. As you’ve said, let’s see what the next 3 weeks looks like.
Thanks for the link.
Ben Parks
March 7, 2020 @ 4:49 pm
The problem with the death rate from the things I have read is that so many healthy people around the world thag may have the virus dont even know it. To them the symptoms just seem like a common virus so they don’t get checked out by a doctor which means they do not get counted. That artificially drives the death rate up
Trigger
March 6, 2020 @ 10:29 pm
Yeah, that Twitter thread is the perfect example of the hysteria being bred through social media that I talked about in the article.
She says, “We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.”
However no health professionals believe this will be the degree of spread. She’s an engineer approaching this as a statistical exercise, and extrapolating data as opposed to looking at the problem from a more holistic point-of-view, including the onset of spring which as always caused sharp declines in these viral strains, aggressive measures to mitigate the spread such as the canceling of SXSW, and improvements in treatment and prevention. Trying to convince people we will be out of hospital beds by May is hysteria by definition. I’m not going to say it couldn’t happen because anything is possible. But I’ll listen to the medical experts on this one, not an engineer.
I think there are some people who have a hard on for the Coronavirus. I think some people hope it becomes a major problem. It’s meaningful to them. Some hope the public blames the government so they can change the people in power. I think some people think it’s romantic to think they’re living through a pandemic. Less than 270 people have this disease in the United States. I expect those numbers to go up, and dramatically. But by summer, people will have moved on to the next hyperbolic catastrophe that we must freak out about.
I’m not saying the Coronavirus is not a serious matter. I’m not even opposed to cancelling events over it, including SXSW. However declaring a “local disaster” as the Mayor of Austin did with absolutely no cases in the area is exceptional, and happens to be very damaging to the music community. There is no “disaster.” What happened to Nashville on Monday was a “disaster.” If cases show up in Austin, cancel the event then. If the virus beings to spread at a more alarming rate, cancel the event. There is still nearly two weeks to do so. In the interim, take precautions to mitigate the ability for the event to potentially spread the virus. Declaring a disaster where there are no local cases is an element of hysteria, and among other things, could cause the public to not take the matter seriously if and when there is a real disaster at the hands of the Coronavirus. It’s the boy who cried wolf.
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 5:25 am
@MackayIM
@HelenBranswell
@DrEricDing
@trvrb
Here are a few medical experts you can listen to rather than the engineer.
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 5:42 am
Oh, and I don’t know where this “1%” mortality rate is coming from, WHO is currently estimating it at 3-4%. 20% of those infected have needed hospitalization, 5% ICU care, and if you have to go to the ICU you have a 50/50 chance of surviving.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
Being “out of hospital beds” is more complex than you would initially think. Once large numbers of people begin getting sick, there will be many, many hospital staff who aren’t able to work, either because of their own illness or because they have been “quarantined” for 2 weeks after exposure to someone who was ill. Our hospital pretty routinely fills up during peak periods of flu etc, including the ICUs. Sometimes this is because all the physical beds are full, but often it’s because we have open beds but no nursing staff to care for more patients.
Paddy
March 7, 2020 @ 8:40 am
In a number of weeks, even months, the residents of Austin might well be thanking the Mayor even though his remarks are questionable. This is one event where we should only be listening to those who know what they are talking about. And the leaders of our various countries should be acting on the advice of those experts . And ignore the financial gurus and the pharmaceutical giants.
Blockman
March 7, 2020 @ 12:33 pm
Trig – as mentioned above you are a music journalist and youre doing your own little statistical exercise. Neither is helping on any side of this.
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 2:08 pm
I simply cited the known statistics in an attempt to offer some perspective and context. What I offered was hard information. Saying that we’ll jump from 2 million to 4 million Coronavirus cases in the US in May and run out of hospital space is hysteria by definition, just like declaring a “local disaster” when nothing has happened. I’m not saying Coronavirus isn’t serious. Not even saying events like SXSW shouldn’t be cancelled. I simply wanted to explain how the hysteria has now significantly affected the music community, and after seeing the posts from venues, artists, labels, and others who are very concerned about what this is going to do to their future, I feel very justified that my concern was warranted.
Here are some public examples:
https://twitter.com/johnpaulwhite/status/1236113044394176512
https://twitter.com/HFTRR/status/1236071695670112256
https://twitter.com/mohawkaustin/status/1236147703463186432
The Original WTF Guy
March 9, 2020 @ 3:43 am
“I think there are some people who have a hard on for the Coronavirus. I think some people hope it becomes a major problem. It’s meaningful to them. Some hope the public blames the government so they can change the people in power. I think some people think it’s romantic to think they’re living through a pandemic.”
And this is exactly why you should not be writing on things like this. But at least you were willing to make your biases known.
Trigger
March 9, 2020 @ 10:25 am
What are my biases?
I think in this very polarized political time, Coronovirius is being politicized by both sides, and I think people are unfortunately drawing their perspective on the disease based off of their political perspective, and you can see that in this very comments section. My only bias is against sensationalism and hysteria, which most of us can agree is surrounding this Coronavirus outbreak, even if you consider the matter gravely serious. I think my assessment has been very rational, very informed, I took the sharing of my opinions very serious, knowing how polarizing they would be, and feel confident in my stance. If people disagree, I wholeheartedly respect that, and host a forum where they can share their opinions and perspective, which I’m glad to see happened. But I choose to remain optimistic along with being realistic, while some clearly are so dug into their ideology and assessment, they revel in this crisis.
Arlene
March 7, 2020 @ 11:57 am
Thank you, RGW, for posting this information and these links.
SG
March 6, 2020 @ 8:38 pm
Maybe they’re afraid of someone telling them about the ACM nominations. If that’s the case, I completely understand.
LessThanPi
March 7, 2020 @ 5:49 am
I did a graduate Math Program at a University with a top 30 med program. Their best ‘evidence based medicine ‘ guy spent 6 months on a problem, gave up, and hired one of my math Grad Student colleagues as an RA. He gave him a 6 month stipend up front and said he’d extend it and hire more students if needed. We (3 students) solved it in 35 minutes over lunch, we were also the weaker students in the program. Trust the Quant guys with data, not the Doctors. Letting MDs crunch numbers is like hiring a plumber to fix your car.
LessThanPi
March 7, 2020 @ 5:56 am
Gah! This forum sucks on mobile. This is suppose to be above.
SG
March 7, 2020 @ 8:18 am
Too bad, for a couple seconds there I thought the shit nature or mainstream country was actually being studied with math.
SG
March 7, 2020 @ 8:20 am
Of
OneBySea
March 6, 2020 @ 9:55 pm
Well, you’re talking about something like 1 out of every 30 people infected dying. Personally, I don’t want to play those odds, and I don’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to be responsible for spreading that risk to a large group of people. Are some folks overreacting? Yeah, probably. On the other hand, we really have no idea how bad this is. Even that 3% number is questionable, we just don’t have the data yet. What we do know is this virus spreads like crazy, so I’m all in favor of caution for the time being. There will be other SXSWs.
RGW
March 6, 2020 @ 10:05 pm
Amen
Hey Arnold
March 6, 2020 @ 10:15 pm
Oh shit… Please don’t tell me that my Russell Dickerson concert will be cancelled next month.
Uncle2Pillow
March 6, 2020 @ 10:39 pm
RIP Bloodshot Records SXSW showcase 🙁
Trigger
March 6, 2020 @ 10:46 pm
I suspect there are still going to be some events. Not sure about the Bloodshot Records Day Party that they moved to ABGB this year, but Luck Reunion and other unofficial big events have yet to announce anything. Going to be a very interesting next few days.
Keith
March 7, 2020 @ 1:36 pm
I’ve got Luck Reunion tickets. Crossing my fingers that Travis County doesn’t want to piss off Willie.
Buskertype
March 6, 2020 @ 10:41 pm
Canceling SXSW was absolutely the right call… the number of cases is way higher than we know right now because of the inadequate testing. If there are 14 dead in WA and we assume a 1% death rate, that means there are around 1400 cases in Washington, nearly all of them undiagnosed, many of them walking around feeling fine and spreading the virus. That’s very bad and could quickly overwhelm the healthcare system. Closing mass gatherings will help slow the spread at least a little and it’s worth it.
Mongo
March 6, 2020 @ 11:18 pm
I’m not disagreeing, but as you stated the amount of people that probably have it is far greater than reported which would mean a much lower fatality rate. Why the fuss over something that could possibly have a fatality rate of 1 percent or less. These mass cancellations are going to have a far greater impact on our lives and economy than trying to protect the 1% will.
Blockman
March 6, 2020 @ 11:25 pm
Well it’s clear that those in charge of this as far as testing and preventive measures are completely incompetent and ignorant so the number of cases are likely much higher. All it takes is one person. Look at what happened in Korea with that little church group. Not saying there is no hysteria around this. Clearly there is. However, better safe than sorry as it seems this virus is starting to gain some momentum over there. Especially considering people travel from all parts to attend.
Ben
March 7, 2020 @ 12:46 am
Artists are pulling out of the Europe’s C2C (Country to Country) Festival due to Coronavirus too.
As long as the Chief still turns up I’ll be there!
Zach
March 7, 2020 @ 1:12 am
The media over hype is very real, as is the irrational behavior of people hoarding toilet paper, surgical masks, etc. That said, the data mostly all points to a positive outcome of the epidemic depending on government and social response. Cancelling SXSW is part of that.
Viruses generally follow “s curves”:a period of slow spread, a period of exponential growth, and then a long plateau. China experienced some pretty scary exponential growth but has now reached the plateau part of the curve due to some pretty Draconian control measures. The rest of the world, however, is still very much in the exponential growth phase with no plateau in sight. Cases outside of China are doubling every 3.3 days at the moment. Turning the corner from “exponential growth” to “long plateau” is going to take some action on our part, and that means changes and inconveniences.
I think “zooming out” and having perspective also means acknowledging that one year without SXSW isn’t the end of the world.
Zach
March 7, 2020 @ 1:15 am
Some interesting data to back this up:
https://elm.nsupdate.info/virus/#world
Di Harris
March 7, 2020 @ 3:38 am
Has anyone touched on the whole, some pharmaceuticul company is going to make a bazillion bucks coming up with the greatest vaccine ever, for this?
Why do you think the mass hysteria campaign?
One company claimed they have researched, and created a vaccine, in 45, FORTY-FIVE days.
Actually laughed out loud when i read that.
Another company claims that they created a corona virus vaccine in 2016. 2016. Huh?
But that they ran out of funding from the government. Now they are excited, hoping to recoup their financial losses, & finally get the funding they so richly deserve, for THEIR vaccine.
Not a conspiracy theorist.
Save your breath, RGW.
Might want to look up small pox infected blankets handed out to Indians. Have a particular hard on about that one, because Indian on both sides of the family.
Unlike, ahem, E. Warren
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 5:45 am
You think this is being driven by the pharmaceutical industry?? Actually laughed out loud when I read that.” 🙂
Di Harris
March 7, 2020 @ 9:09 am
Lemmings
Blockman
March 7, 2020 @ 12:37 pm
No, I don’t think anyone has touched on this. Most aren’t that ignorant thankfully . I bet you’re super proud of this hot take.
Paddy
March 8, 2020 @ 7:50 am
Really confused this time. How did they come up for a vaccine in 2016 for a virus that was yet to exist.
RGW
March 9, 2020 @ 7:05 am
Paddy, it’s entirely plausible that they have the basics of a vaccine for coronavirus. This new virus is one of a family of coronaviruses, closely related to SARS and MERS. We all commonly come into contact with other coronaviruses all the time, in fact often the common cold is caused by them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus
I don’t know anything about this company’s claim, but they may have been working on another virus in the family and that research may translate to this new threat, as they will have much of their structure in common.
Also, the new catchphrase for this disaster is “flatten the curve”. This is explained by this very good summary of our current problem:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/09-03-2020/the-three-phases-of-covid-19-and-how-we-can-make-it-manageable/
This is the basis for calling for “social distancing”, or avoidance of large gatherings like SXSW. Northern Italy is currently in crisis, with 10% of cases requiring ICU care, 10% of their doctors and nurses are infected and quarantined, and as I said earlier they are discussing rationing of ICU care in order to maximize outcomes for those with the best chances to survive.
I’m not going to address Triggers comments on this forum, but the phrase “stay in your lane” comes to mind.
Paddy
March 9, 2020 @ 9:18 am
Cheers. Thanks for that. I follow what you are saying but understanding it is something else. Need Triggers brain for that.
Paddy
March 9, 2020 @ 9:39 am
BTW. You should have sent that reply to Di. That would have surely impressed her.
Rusty
March 7, 2020 @ 5:47 am
Coronavirus is a political “epidemic”. People are making it into something its not in order to try and use it against certain people in the upcoming election.
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 6:13 am
The World Health Organization is in on it?? Actually laughed out loud when I read that.” 🙂
Rusty
March 7, 2020 @ 11:29 am
I was talking about the media going crazy about it. The truth is that if news organizations weren’t running stories on it 24/7 absolutely nobody would know it exists.
Zach
March 7, 2020 @ 11:52 am
Well, we definitely want people to know that it exists. Containment depends on governments and individuals taking action. We’re past the point of being able to bury your head in the sand
Blockman
March 7, 2020 @ 12:42 pm
The truth? Absolutely no one? I guess those who have been infected and those who have died have just imagined it into existence? Or was it the media who magically infected said people? Brilliant!
Paddy
March 7, 2020 @ 1:29 pm
Hey man. Leave Rusty alone. Corona has got to his brain.
Rusty
March 7, 2020 @ 3:44 pm
But who knows how many people have had it or would have had it and just thought it was the flu or a cold because the symptoms are the same. And most wouldn’t have gone to the doctor and recovered just fine.
Michael Strait
March 7, 2020 @ 5:35 pm
The media does this every time there’s a big pandemic, no matter who’s in charge. I come from the UK and they did this so often it got ridiculous. Bird flu is a big one I remember.
hoptowntiger
March 7, 2020 @ 5:49 am
My understanding is when the major sponsors dropped out, that was the final nail in the coffin. You can’t have a festival without money and I don’t blame these sponsors (many that require international travel) for dropping out. Maybe SXSW will focus on procuring local/regional sponsorship going forward?
Major sponsors that dropped out of SXSW 5 days ago:
1. TikTok
2.Mashable
3. Intel
4. Facebook
5. Twitter
6. Vevo
7. Amazon
8. The Latinx House
9. Apple
10. Netflix
11. HBO
I think the bigger lesson (besides being less internationally dependent), is this is a test and we need to start being more responsible and cleaner ma’fuckers! I temporarily stopped going to the gym since this virus hit the US (the gym is where I acquired a staph infection many years ago). I’m not using community drink stations at fast casual restaurants like Panera. And I’ve been washing my hands more.
I get the temporary financial strain this will put on the music industry, but artists will adapt. I see their notifications on social media about the SXSW cancellation and to stay tuned as the re route their tours. I’m getting a Sarah Shook date out of the SXSW cancellation.
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 9:56 am
SXSW said itself that it could and needed to go on even without major sponsors, because it would be worse otherwise. A lot of companies were not pulling advertising or support, just their on-the-ground reps and employees due to the potential legal ramifications. The true heart of SXSW is companies like Bloodshot Records, Thirty Tigers, local beer sellers, upstart tech companies, Fender guitars. Yes, they were being injured by major sponsors pulling manpower. But this wasn’t a reason to cancel. If anything, it was necessitating the show must go on.
DJ
March 7, 2020 @ 6:33 am
SMH- I can’t believe the power the media has- absolutely unbelievable.
Travis
March 7, 2020 @ 6:49 am
Trig says ‘For context, 4,800 people have died from the flu in the United States in 2020, and there has been 87,000 hospitalizations. Also, only 3.4 percent of the people who contract the Conronavirus die from the disease, which is a higher frequency than flu sufferers (varies upon strain and year), but is still a very low percentage.’..he doesn’t mention that that ‘higher frequency’, at a 3.4% rate is 34x more than the death rate from the flu. The only people I see bringing the flu into the context Trig used is right wing media. Health professionals are extremely concerned that if this virus spreads like the flu, we are in a lot of trouble. We have had American citizens flying in from regions with outbreaks that have been living their normal lives since this started and virtually no testing going on. Some people are being told to self-quarantine for a couple weeks but there is no system in place to make sure that’s done. Until we’re caught up on testing, I 100% agree with the over-abundance-of-caution approach because we can end up having to shut down much more of our economy than a music festival if this does spread quickly.
Paddy
March 7, 2020 @ 7:25 am
But you forget. Trig is an expert. He knows everything. Why Trump has not appointed him to supreme leader is beyond me. Let him explain his idiotic theory to the people of Italy. At the end of the day the real experts are only trying to safeguard those they are responsible for. They have access to information that Trig does not. He is the prick who is spreading hysteria.
Travis
March 7, 2020 @ 7:42 am
Just listened to the Austin mayor on NPR and he claims that the same health officials that stated shutting down SXSW wouldn’t make the city safer have since walked that back based on the additional cases and information brought to light over the last couple days. I haven’t independently verified that, but if true, is noteworthy to this conversation.
Paddy
March 7, 2020 @ 8:14 am
There has been an interesting comments here in Ireland and U.K. a number of experts have said the cancellation of large events, eg football matches, will not have much of an effect on the spread of this virus. They argue that small events will have a bigger effect. And that advice will change as the virus takes a larger hold further down the road. Also this 3.4 per cent fatality rate is greatly overstated. The experts state that that figure does not include the number of people who are not even aware that they had the virus. The symptoms are apparently very mild. I hope I do not have to find out. I did hear Trump gave a fatality figure of around point one per cent. As far as USA goes the worst of this thing has yet to come. Here the government has said there will be four stages. We have moved into phase 2, this is the containment stage. The financial aspect of this virus would appear to be worse than the actual virus. Assuming you survive it.
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 9:45 am
I never claimed to be an expert on health. I am not a Trump supporter, though people continue to attempt to label me such because it helps them fulfill the stock mentality about people who are different from them, and how stupid they are. Citing Trump in your response proves this. The are plenty of examples of people and media entities on the left who are also concerned that the media is exploiting this concerning situation. It’s also fair to point out that some would love for this disease to run rampant, because it would help ensure a power change in American politics.
I made what I believe is a fair attempt to offer some statistical context to the spread and severity of the Coronavirus in the United States. I’m not saying the disease isn’t troubling, or that SXSW shouldn’t be canceled. I also expect, like everyone, for the number of cases to go up before they begin the stabilize. But this specter of “The government sucks and we don’t know the real amount of cases out there” is a qualifier, not a statistical certitude, like the data I cited.
My greater point was that by declaring a “local disaster” without any provocation is going to blow a hole straight through the music economy of Austin, TX, and significantly harm independent music as a whole. As an Austinite, as someone who has attended SXSW the last 10 years straight and sporadically before that, and someone who writes about music for a living, I can claim expertise on this subject. After writing this article, and reading the public announcements and personal emails and fielding the calls of many artists, venues, and promoters who are going to be significantly injured or devastated by this development, if anything, I didn’t underscore this point enough.
There are two major factors in the massive contraction of Austin music: Artists leaving, and venues closing. This decision by the city could cause another 6 to 12 venues to close, including anchors to the Austin scene. If this occurs, statistically, Austin ceases to be the Live Music Capital of the World. Is that worse than even one person dying? Maybe not. But it’s something that I wanted the public who only knows SXSW as some thing that happens in Austin some time in the spring that techy and music people talk about to understand.
Travis
March 7, 2020 @ 10:39 am
This is definitely a hard decision anyway you look at it. Do you hurt a segment of the city’s, and artist’s, economic livelihood now for even a low risk of a greater economic impact and health impact later? I wouldn’t want to make that decision.
Zach
March 7, 2020 @ 12:01 pm
I think you have to bare in mind though that declaring an emergency is a necessary first step to freeing up resources to deal with a crisis. I freely admit that I don’t understand the local conditions and circumstances in Austin that led to the calculation to make that decision. Maybe it indeed was premature. I still don’t think your can say it’s with “no provocation”. Coronavirus IS going to hit Austin the same as it’s going to hit every other major city. When that happens the healthcare system is going to need the state and federal dollars that come with a declared emergency
hoptowntiger94
March 7, 2020 @ 7:01 am
My comment is in the waiting room – quarantined.
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 9:47 am
It’s been posted.
Post something with a list like that, it’s gonna be sent to moderation as potential spam.
Harpo
March 7, 2020 @ 8:34 am
Jim Bakker, says he has the stuff to cure it.
Harpo
March 7, 2020 @ 8:47 am
I don’t know why ya’ll don’t listen to Jim Bakker, he has the cure.
Terry
March 7, 2020 @ 8:54 am
We vacationed in Mexico when the swine flu virus started. Our resort emptied out but we stayed-we were 800 miles from Mexico City. Went through medical checks at the airport, and when I went back to work. Two weeks later, the hysteria and the disease disappeared off the radar. And the national news!
Social media and our fear based news media has exploded this. Yes it is a disease. Yes we need to be careful. But what is happening is crazy! The sky is falling Chicken Little! Who knows where this will lead economically! We have the media to thank for not justreporting the news but scaring the heck out of everyone!
Sorry that the musicians and people who work at these events will suffer the most financially.
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 9:53 am
Exactly. SARS, Swine flu, migrant caravans, the AIDS epidemic, war with Iran that all the experts were saying a couple of months ago was inevitable, everyone reported on how the crisis was eminent, but were surprisingly mum when the crisis was averted or resolved. They just move on to the next crisis.
Again, I’m not saying that Coronavirus isn’t serious. But the media is inciting a panic. When you have people hoarding and price gouging for masks and hand sanitizer, this is a pretty good sign the public needs some equilibrium.
Paddy
March 7, 2020 @ 2:16 pm
Here in U.K. the Chief Medical Officer has just declared that the chance of the U.K. avoiding an epidemic is somewhere between slim and zero. States that the health service is going to come under enormous strain and is appealing for retired doctors and nurses to consider coming back to work. Also says hopefully summer will begin to see a plateau as the warmer months should slow this. In other words he is talking months not weeks. And nobody is contradicting him. At least over here all the major political parties are singing from same hymn sheet and not trying to gain advantage from it. Shows it must be serious.
Travis
March 7, 2020 @ 11:11 am
Well you should be thankful that happened under an administration that was prepared because Trump’s administration doesn’t know what the fuck they’re doing. I personally know of one person who flew in from South Korea less than 2 weeks ago, and someone from Italy last week; neither of whom were tested or quarantined. Add to that, Trump’s administration already proving that they care more about optics and politics than public safety (sharpiegate where they literally threatened NOAA to not go against Trump’s inaccurate information) and you have to see where some of this hysteria is justified. We watched China’s economy shut down before this got super political in America. To think we are immune from the same thing is ridiculous.
Justin
March 7, 2020 @ 2:13 pm
I have a feeling that no matter what Trump did you would be saying he is handling it the “wrong way.” The TDS in you is real.
Travis
March 7, 2020 @ 3:29 pm
You have Trump and Pence contradicting each other on test kits on the same day, and my example of sharpie-gate is 100% factual. If you trust Trump right now, I feel very sorry for you.
Paddy
March 8, 2020 @ 8:10 am
Sadly one would think that the various parties would come together on this. Rich or poor we shall all suffer.
Travis
March 8, 2020 @ 9:38 am
I feel like there used to be a line that politicians wouldn’t cross and that when it comes to public health and safety, they could comprise and do what’s best; but those days appear over now. Even if Trump and his administration were doing everything right, I don’t know that Dems wouldn’t look for a way to sabotage something and try to throw Trump under the bus.
Billy Wayne Ruddick
March 7, 2020 @ 9:03 am
The worst part about this for Trigger is its effect on all his groupies. What woman wants to hang out with a dude who’s last name rhymes with the virus? 😀
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 9:46 am
It has been bad for my game.
🙂
hoptowntiger94
March 7, 2020 @ 9:06 am
I have a comment “in waiting” that lists all the international sponsorships that pulled out. And who can blame them? Just like a global economy is fragile, so too are international events like SXSW.
(By the way, second story this week one of my comments got lost in waiting)
For those blaming the media, it’s the media’s job to report stories. It’s not the media’s job to manage people’s emotions or (over) reactions to said stories. I like to be in the know, then determine how to react to that information. If the media didn’t report on this virus and it blew up it an epidemic, the same people whining about the media would be crying, “why weren’t we told earlier!”
kristofer hitchcock
March 7, 2020 @ 10:32 am
I’m seeing a lot of underground artists arranging to still play or planning to still go. Indie artists can’t just cancel a tour or refund plane tickets, return purchased merchandise or promo materials. I hope they go and are successful.
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 11:45 am
I hope so too, and there are organizations trying to band together at this moment and figure this out. My one concern is since the city has declared a “local disaster,” they can come in and disrupt these gatherings if they want. One of the reasons the city declared a disaster is so they can keep their own budget in line, but some local businesses don’t have that luxury.
I have heard or seen nothing from some major SXSW attendees and functions, including the Luck Reunion which happens well outside of town, and other major gatherings and unofficial showcases. We may not know much until Monday, but I plan on making a list of the country/roots/Americana functions still going forward, as well as covering as many of them as I can so hopefully the artists, promoters, labels, and venues can at least try to recoup something from this crisis.
Dylan Rimbaud
March 7, 2020 @ 11:03 am
What happened to liking/disliking comments? tried three different browsers to no avail all add ons turned off etc..i know this is not directly related to the topic here but i didn’t know where else to address this question nor did i see it mentioned anywhere or a FAQ for the site, thanks
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 11:40 am
We were doing some work on the back end of the site earlier this week, and it caused the “like” buttons to render strangely. We kept them up for a while becausde they were still registering everyones “Likes,” just not displaying them properly. But then everyone was complaining, so we took them down until we can solve the glitch. Hope to have the issue corrected soon.
doncondo
March 7, 2020 @ 1:39 pm
Chuck Prophet has said he will still do his shows in Austin and at Luck. So it sounds like Luck is still on until they announce they are not.
Trigger
March 7, 2020 @ 2:10 pm
Luck has not canceled or confirmed yet. I am in contact with them and some other promoters and organizers and will post updates when we know more.
hoptowntiger94
March 7, 2020 @ 3:18 pm
Protect Willie! Cancel Luck!
Di Harris
March 7, 2020 @ 11:14 am
Nuc Med
Paul
March 7, 2020 @ 12:32 pm
It all these events went ahead and people ended up getting sick, you’d all be lambasting the authorities for not doing enough to stop it happening. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
Jim L.
March 7, 2020 @ 12:45 pm
Despite what mainstream media and the medical system tell you, there are things you can do to strengthen your immune system against any virus. Washing your hands and getting good sleep is only part of the solution. I’d tell you more, but that would unleash multiple attacks on me for threatening their profits. Do your own research. The medical system doesn’t get rich off of healthy, well-educated people.
Blackh4t
March 7, 2020 @ 2:27 pm
While we’re doing maths:
If cutting a festival cuts off a major income source, there will definately be a lot of people who are set back in their life at least a year.
Find 70 of these and you start equating to a death.
Throw in the extra stress that everyone who needs this income is now suffering, and over thousands of people this also may take a cumulative 70 years of life.
That isn’t accurate maths, but its the gist of how society and risks work. We drive cars because we’re wasting our life to walk everywhere. We go to festivals because the happines and stress relief is more beneficial than the cost and danger of getting some nasty disease. (Worst I’ve got at a festival was tonsillitis but it happens)
I’d still go there knowing the risk. Probably wouldn’t make out in the crowd with any girl with a cold
JC
March 7, 2020 @ 3:34 pm
There wouldn’t be so much panic from the public if the media would stop using rhetoric like I heard on the TV news the past few days: “There’s been an EXPLOSION of corona virus cases in America” and “We’re going to see hundreds of thousands of corona virus cases in America. This is going to happen.”
JC
March 7, 2020 @ 3:40 pm
My mother told me she heard a news reporter on a national cable TV news channel say a few days ago “We’re ALL going to get corona virus.” No wonder the American public is panicking with that kind of rhetoric from the media.
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 7:41 pm
That news reporter is most likely correct, according to many experts in the field. It’s just like virtually everyone in the world gets a cold or GI but at some point, and before vaccines everyone would get influenza. The key is that for most it’ll be a mild inconvenience, and for the others it might turn out OK IF the healthcare system hasn’t been overwhelmed with thousands of others who got sick at the same time.
I’m in the healthcare field and expect to get it at some point, I just hope I’m not one of the unlucky ones.
marcel
March 7, 2020 @ 4:10 pm
trigger, well done, kudos, and A+ in my books. you nailed it. keep up your great work, whether in pieces like this, or backstories, or album reviews.
has anyone posted this “new england journal of medicine” article? a few facts of interest, that – oh by the way – show you indeed nailed it.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=RP
Dennixx
March 7, 2020 @ 6:45 pm
Crap…
There goes my 401K.
Oh well.
When your numbers up… it’s up.
A benefit as I see it could be at the polls in November
wayne
March 7, 2020 @ 7:52 pm
As Winston Churchill “supposedly” said, and later quoted by Rahm Emanuel, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” The media are salivating over this. Because, you know, it’s Trump’s fault.
RGW
March 7, 2020 @ 7:52 pm
That is only taking into account the initial 425 cases. For up to date info follow the WHO:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
and to follow raw numbers etc keep up with the Johns Hopkins
dashboard:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Statnews.com is also a very good site updated frequently with unbiased reporting.
Dee Manning
March 7, 2020 @ 7:55 pm
I think Austin did the responsible thing. I’ve been to SXSW and that’s just too many partying people who aren’t going to wash their hands enough. I feel bad for the city’s venues, bars and restaurants for the financial impact but: they have already quarantined the Milan area of Italy and closed schools in China. Too cautious is better than not cautious enough.
JC
March 8, 2020 @ 2:53 am
The corona “media epidemic” is causing a toilet paper panic in Australia. Here are 2 fights over toilet paper, lol:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVHYTdGUAZM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1trvNJi8l9Y
Somehow people think hoarding toilet paper will…protect against the virus? Or maybe when people think of the one thing they most dread running out of, it’s toilet paper?
Matsfan/Jatsfan
March 8, 2020 @ 4:32 am
How many people that are canceling their plans or buying into the worst case scenario have taken the simple step of getting an annual flu shot? While that doesn’t impact the cornoavirius
the flu has killed more people each day this year. Get some perspective. Oh, yeah, and I remember when the world was going to fall into complete chaos from the calendar changing from 1999 to 2000.
RGW
March 8, 2020 @ 5:11 am
I’m about done with this long thread, partly because it’s very hard to keep up with new responses the way it’s structured. Just FYI, just read this good article out of Harvard which echoes a lot of things in this thread, as told by some real experts:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/07/harvard-forum-experts-warn-most-daunting-virus-in-50-years/
Good luck to all of you 🙂
RGW
March 8, 2020 @ 5:33 am
And BTW, articles about rationing ICU care in the overwhelmed northern Italy system are starting to appear. People (like me) are having to decide who is going to get the ventilators and ICU care and who isn’t because they don’t have enough to go around. This is probably the worst thing I’ve read about the outbreak so far, and I’ve read A LOT! The UK has admitted they already have similar plans in the event it’s necessary there.
Looks like the thread I posted above by “the engineer” has some validity.
Again, good luck to all.
Robert Neville
March 8, 2020 @ 6:56 am
Epidemic pro-tip: burn the corpses. Good luck to you too. 🙄
Cole
March 22, 2020 @ 3:36 am
I came across this blog too late for relevance, but I wanted to applaud you at your attempt to get people to listen to what was going on in the world outside the US, and to what could likely happen here. The media, while it does sensationalize things, was reporting the truth, and as it turns out, they should have been screaming louder. We are now paying the price for dragging our feet and not listening to professionals. We are paying the price for not preparing for what we were seeing abroad. I thought I was taking it seriously, and I went to the Gasparilla in Tampa. I was on my way there when SXSW announced its cancellation. You could say I was in the middle, I never denied the reality of what was possible like Trigger does, but I also didn’t fully grasp how easy it was to spread so I didn’t think going to the music festival was bad as long as I took extra precautions. Anyway, kudos for fighting the good fight, I wish more of us would have listened more closely, and others didn’t actively fight against experts and reason.
Trigger
March 8, 2020 @ 11:38 am
Looking forward to checking back in May to see if Coronavirus cases in May jump from 2 million to 4 million in the United States, and we run out of hospital beds. Not saying it couldn’t happen, but I know what side of that equation I’m rooting for, while I find it strange others will be rooting against me for their bid at intellectual superiority.
Yes, good luck to us all.
Trigger
March 8, 2020 @ 11:47 am
RGW,
I think a lot of people are overlooking the point and perspective of this article. I run a website called “Saving Country Music.” My job is to advocate for music. The premeditated cancellation of SXSW well before that decision needed to be made and the declaration of a “local disaster” will adversely affect thousands of lives, careers, businesses, including many losing those careers and businesses. You want to read articles on the subject? There are now over a dozen that have been posted with personal accounts from artists and business owners who have been devastated by this development. Here’s a good one:
https://www.nme.com/festivals/musicians-react-to-sxsw-cancellation-its-going-to-be-very-very-difficult-for-a-lot-of-bands-to-come-back-from-this-2621993?curator=MusicREDEF
I completely respect the people on the side of caution about this disease, people who advocate for public health, and I think the Coronavirus is a serious matter. They do their job, I do mine. But the cancelling of SXSW was like a tornado rolling through downtown Austin, only insurance won’t cover the damage (article about that here: https://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/news/2020-03-06/sxsw-cancellation-not-covered-by-insurance/?curator=MediaREDEF ) I think the lightness some are trying to bring to the gravity of what this cancellation has caused is troubling. We all should be thinking about the greater ramifications here. There’s plenty of articles proclaiming the seriousness of Coronavirus. I wanted to offer some context from the musical perspective.
This completely fucked over Austin and independent music. I simply shared my concern, my perspective.
tatuaje
March 8, 2020 @ 12:48 pm
Here’s the thing Trig, you could’ve shared your perspective of the ATX music scene without calling the decision to cancel SXSW “hysteria”.
Is hoarding tp & Purell hysteria? Of course.
Is cancelling an event that will bring millions of people from all over the world in the midst of a probable pandemic hysteria? Hell no
Is this devastating to the ATX economy? Clearly.
Is this thing gonna be devastating to the country’s economy? Maybe.
Is stopping the spread crucial to limiting the worst affects? You know it.
Love ya Trig, but people are (rightly) pointing out that you could’ve handled this differently. And instead of being open to that constructive criticism, you’re digging in your heels.
I get it, you understand the seriousness of the situation. You’ve said it over and over. Yet the word ‘hysteria’ still sits in the title of the article.
And those of us pointing this out don’t “have a hard-on” for COVID-19. I’ve got friends and family who are in the most high-risk demographic for this thing. I would like nothing better for this thing to just disappear.
But the people who know about these things say that ain’t gonna happen. Hell, since you posted this article there are now 8 known case in Houston.
I ain’t gonna stop reading this blog. I don’t think you’re a dumbass. Just think you got this one wrong.
Paddy
March 8, 2020 @ 8:56 am
RGW. The lunatics are in charge of the asylum. I congratulate those who have attempted to fight this virus. But in the short term they will be wasting their time. This virus will spread. The best estimate I have seen is that a vaccine is about 9 months away. At least. In U.K. we are in the stage of beginning to cancel large scale events. Nobody knows what is best. But we must listen to our health experts. And the scientists. And government must listen to what they are told. If this gets really out of control then our elected representatives must be held to account.
Trigger
March 8, 2020 @ 11:34 am
It’s amazing how many people have a hard-on for this virus and are rooting for its spread and an alarming death toll in hopes of political change across continents. And now that they’ve taken the stance it will get out of control, they root for it even more so they can prove to everyone how right they were. Such a selfish perspective on life.
SXSW was cancelled, and thousands of lives, careers, businesses were significantly adversely affected, including some whose music career is now shot, or their business will go under. You won. Now, show a little empathy and compassion for the sick and injured.
RGW
March 8, 2020 @ 12:35 pm
Nobody is “rooting for” this catastrophe. The whole point is to minimize morbidity, mortality AND loss of the economy for everyone, not just the musicians. Talk about a “selfish perspective”!
Paddy
March 8, 2020 @ 1:46 pm
So SXSW was cancelled. How many people died as a result. Italy is now playing Serie A matches behind closed doors. Equivalent of Patriots v Jets behind closed doors. The Pope today gave his papal address via video link so as to avoid bringing a large crowd together. The cancellation of a music event may have an adverse effect on large numbers of people. They are alive and will get over it. Thankfully there are people out there who care about their fellow human beings. Long may they look out for us.stick to your music reviews. At least they cannot do us much harm. Selfish perspective on life. Look in the mirror.
Zach
March 8, 2020 @ 2:25 pm
That’s an amazingly cynical perspective, Trigger. How can you look at the suffering that is going on around the globe and think people are happy about it? I’m sure you can point to plenty of instances of people trying to exploit the situation, but the vast majority of people in the world and on this forum are rooting for it to go away. Disagreeing with you personally isn’t the same as rooting for the virus, and I think that’s a pretty ugly take for you to make.
I get that many people were materially harmed by cancelling SXSW and that you’re upset about it. It really is a sad situation, but they aren’t the only victims of this thing
JV
March 8, 2020 @ 9:57 am
I’ve come to this site for years and have never commented until now. Look, the music coverage is great—and I’ve heard some great artists due to this site. But there’s no joy in watching Trigger literally become more stupid with each passing day. I thought his recent tirade against Isbell overlooked so many relevant cultural, rhetorical, and political conversations that it was nearly incoherent, arguing as if Isbell and other artists exist in some sealed-off vacuum. This take on SXSW maintains that staggering stupidity but ramps it up even more. It’s outright dangerous. And yet again, there’s zero context of history, science, common sense, factual evidence. Trigger is clearly grossly uninformed and perhaps that’s not even his fault–I wonder how much he’s exposed to disinformation without even knowing he’s fallen for lies and manipulation. Clearly, the man would be happy to whistle past a graveyard and still think that he’s somehow right or has a valid argument. I’m not even saying this in a way that’s meant to attack. I truly find it depressing and demoralizing. And there will be no good feeling about being proven right–that Isbell’s immediate message is that we’re in grave danger and need to act, that this virus will cause massive disruption to all American lives and institutions (and many people will suffer and die because of it). Maybe Trigger is just another sad example of what a hyper-polarized society has done to most likely decent people? I don’t know. I certainly wish him well and truly hope he’s capable to grow, learn, and think more critically about topics. But watching his self-destruction and his credibility tank is painful. And it’s why I won’t be returning to this site. Our current moment is enough of a car crash–I don’t need to watch another occuring in slow motion.
Trigger
March 8, 2020 @ 11:24 am
Hey JV,
I’m sorry you feel that way, and it’s unfortunate that I’ve lost your readership. Obviously, I respectfully disagree with your assessment that I’ve “zero context of history, science, common sense, factual evidence.” In fact, I feel like I did quite the contrary. I posted the certifiable and concrete statistics involving this disease in an attempt to offer some counterbalance to the doomsday predictions—and that’s all they are, predictions—that are being cited by the media, resulting in a hysteria that is verifiable by the hording of certain supplies, and the declaring of “local disasters” by civic officials without one illness, one suspicion of illness, let alone a death, or an injury to private property. That is not to say that Coronavirus is not a serious situation, which I made sure to underscore in this article, and many seem to overlook. I was even open to a logical cancellation of SXSW if the concerns become warranted, and closer to the event when we can made a more educated assessment. There is nothing “grossly uninformed” by this. It’s quite logical, just like the fair concern for the spread of the virus. There is a reason Coachella and other major events have yet to cancel. You can have a concerning issue like Coronavirus, and still have hysteria that blows it out of proportion, which is what has happened here. This, in fact, is a danger in itself, and can cause great harm. I am not calling Coronavirus a “hoax.” I think it is very real and concerning. But people see a certain headline, and they bring that stock assessment of someone’s opinion to an argument. I simply brought my perspective as a music journalist, and Austinite, and an advocate for independent music to this conversation. If you disagree, I respect that. But many others agree, specifically the people whose lives and career will be devastated by this decision by the City of Austin.
Respectfully,
–Kyle “Trigger”
SG
March 8, 2020 @ 4:06 pm
“I’m not even saying this in a way that’s meant to attack.”
LOL. No, not at all.
This is perhaps the most sanctimonious and patronizing comment I’ve read on this site, and that’s saying a lot.
Troy
March 8, 2020 @ 10:43 am
“In the wake of this cancellation and other developments tied to the fears of Coronoavirus, we should all feel embarrassed and demoralized at the succumbing to the outright hysteria this disease has caused throughout culture.”
Amen, Trig. Between folks buying out doctors masks (which DON’T WORK on the damn virus, but that falls on deaf ears) & the outright pandemonium, I’m over it. Folks need to calm down, wash their hands & be extra cautious.
Fat Freddy's Cat
March 9, 2020 @ 5:49 am
Whether Austin was right or wrong to do this, the fact remains…it is done. So where does that leave the artists? If I understand correctly they had to pony up some serious money just to participate; will they be getting that back, hopefully soon?
This festival is a pretty big ship, and big ships aren’t usually good at turning on a dime. With the festival dates less than two weeks off, I’m thinking the organizers may have already spent a lot of that money. Do they have some sort of insurance or some financial backstop?
Paddy
March 9, 2020 @ 9:23 am
They probably do have insurance but you will find there are plenty of exemptions. This outbreak will probably be stuck in some clause that will void the insurance n
Trigger
March 9, 2020 @ 9:54 am
SXSW’s insurance policy will not cover this cancellation. This was confirmed a few days ago:
https://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/news/2020-03-06/sxsw-cancellation-not-covered-by-insurance/?curator=MediaREDEF
The same goes for many music events. I don’t know what SXSW’s plan is, and they probably don’t know yet either. You’re talking literally hundreds of millions of dollars of lost revenue, without any recourse. And as you said, a ton of the setup and logistics work had already been done. Banners were hung, stages set up, equipment rented. I can’t stress enough the catastrophic nature of this, let alone all the artists who routed their tour plans this year around SXSW, planned album releases, song and video releases, labels and booking agents who use this event to find talent for their year’s roster.
All that said, there are still going to be some events, and some artists are still coming. That is all being hashed out as we speak.
Fat Freddy's Cat
March 9, 2020 @ 10:19 am
Thanks for the info. I was afraid that would be the answer.
I guess it’s on us, the music fans. We just have to try to help the artists in whatever little way we can. Sad to say I doubt we can do much compared to the big hit they’re taking.
paddy
March 9, 2020 @ 12:23 pm
This is indeed a catastrophic set of events. Artists, workers, restaurant owners etc etc are going to be severely hurt. It has just been announced here in Ireland that all St Patricks Day events have been cancelled. Throughout the country. Bands taking part in the events are due to come from all over the world. Marching bands that is. Nobody is moaning about this. The population acknowledge that this is being done with the intention being to protect the greatest number of people. Again football matches are being cancelled. International events etc. It is impossible to forecast what the loss in revenue will be to the country. Also, we shall never know how these restrictions will have saved lives. But all agree, lives will be saved. By the way, these restrictions have been brought in by the government. This government was just defeated in a general election last month. Nothing to do with this virus. But NOBODY is in disagreement over the actions it is taking.
brandon
March 9, 2020 @ 6:22 am
I have a booked flight, bus pass, hotel and tickets for whatever WILL be going on. COVID19 is not slowing me down. Im ready for a WILLIE good time, Lets go Austin!!
paddy
March 14, 2020 @ 3:40 am
Have a great time. Yeah. Plenty to do.
LessThanPi
March 17, 2020 @ 6:59 pm
These takes are aging like sushi in the sun.
RGW
March 18, 2020 @ 7:54 am
Not all of them 🙂
LessThanPi
March 18, 2020 @ 2:43 pm
Yeah, you nailed it! Everyone else ..eh….
RD
March 18, 2020 @ 7:46 am
Looks like Italy will fare better than the US. Doing nothing would have been the most prudent move.
MEP
March 27, 2020 @ 6:26 pm
What an awful take. From now on stay in your lane and show some respect to experts and scientists.
David Allan COVID-19
March 30, 2020 @ 7:59 am
When you listen to a snake oil salesman who paints himself orange instead of the world’s top doctors and scientists, your comments don’t age very well.
Trigger
March 30, 2020 @ 8:15 am
You know who else was opposed to cancelling SXSW?
SXSW.
SXSW is an very left-leaning organization. The scheduled keynote speaker in 2020 was Hillary Clinton. The keynote speaker a couple of years ago was Barack Obama.
Obviously, many, many things have changed since these opinions were shared now over three weeks ago, and continuing to come back to this article while ignoring more relevant ones is tantamount to burning straw men, while validating that it’s political acrimony involved in much of the anger and hysteria behind this disease.
This had nothing to do with the “orange” guy.